Working Papers

Mueller-Smith, M., Reeves, J., Schnepel, K., & Walker, C. The Direct and Intergenerational Effects of Criminal History-Based Safety Net Bans in the U.S.

Impact of PRWORA ban on SNAP receipt
for justice-involved individuals

Mueller-Smith, M., Pyle, B., & Walker, C. Estimating the Impact of the Age of Criminal Majority: Decomposing Multiple Treatments in a Regression Discontinuity Framework.

The impact of adult prosecution versus juvenile
case processing on subsequent felony charges

Gross, M., & Mueller-Smith, M. Modernizing Person-Level Entity Resolution with Biometrically Linked Records.

Entity resolution model out-of-sample pre-
diction performance statistics, by training data
sample size

Publications

Finlay, K., Gross, M., Lieberman, C., Luh, E., & Mueller-Smith, M. The Impact of Criminal Financial Sanctions: A Multi-State Analysis of Survey and Administrative Data. Forthcoming in American Economic Review: Insights.

The impact of increased monetary sanctions on
earnings, by state

Finlay, K., Mueller-Smith, M., & Street, B. (2023). Children’s Indirect Exposure to the U.S. Justice System: Evidence from Longitudinal Links between Survey and Administrative Data. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 138(4), 2181-2224.

Percent of children with parental justice system
involvement (criminal charge), by child race and
parental income

Choi, J., Kilmer, D., Mueller-Smith, M., & Taheri, S. (2023) Hierarchical Approaches to Text-based Offense Classification. Science Advances, 9(9), 1-15.

TOC tool out-of-sample prediction performance
statistics, by training data sample size

Finlay, K., Mueller-Smith, M., & Street, B. (2023). Criminal Justice Involvement, Self-employment, and Barriers in Recent Public Policy. Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, 42(1), 11-34.

Proportion of Form 1040 filers who filed a
Schedule C, tax years 2014–2018, by type of
criminal history

Finlay, K., Mueller-Smith, M., & Papp, J. (2022). The Criminal Justice administrative Records System: A Next-generation Research Data Platform. Scientific Data, 562(9), 1-11.

Operational depiction of CJARS

Deshpande, M., & Mueller-Smith, M. (2022). Does Welfare Prevent Crime? The Criminal Justice Outcomes of Youth Removed From SSI. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 137(4), 2263-2307.

Impact of the removal of Supplemental Security
Income on likelihood of incarceration

Finlay, K., & Mueller-Smith, M. (2021). Justice-involved individuals in the labor market since the Great Recession. The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 695(1), 107-122.

Yearly probability of employment by year-of-
felony-conviction cohort

Ratcliff, S., Finlay, K., Papp, J., Kearns, M.C., Niolon, P.H., & Peterson, C. (2025). Adverse Childhood Experiences: Increased Likelihood Of Socioeconomic Disadvantages For Young Adults. Health Affairs, 44(1), 108-116.

Probability changes in socioeconomic disadvantages
associated with individual adverse childhood experiences
for people in 4 states who were ages 18–22 during 2017–21